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Why the NFL Draft is one of the few sports events where bettors have been beating sportsbooks

Why the NFL Draft is one of the few sports events where bettors have been beating sportsbooks

There’s a saying in gambling that the “house always wins,” meaning that in most cases casinos and betting operators have better odds to win than bettors.

That philosophy also applies to sports betting where sportsbooks typically make profits on events ranging from the Super Bowl to March Madness to the MLB playoffs. One major sports-related event, however, is different. It’s the one event where bettors may be able to outmaneuver the sportsbooks: the NFL Draft.

As ESPN has reported, gamblers have been getting the better of sportsbooks on the draft for years, but continue to offer the service in order to satisfy customer demand.

Over $20 million was bet on last year’s draft, with more likely to be wagered this year. Bettors can wager on who will be selected No. 1 overall, which player will be the first wide receiver taken, and which players will be selected in the top 10 — there are hundreds of available bets such as these on legal U.S. sportsbooks like DraftKings
DKNG,
+1.66%

and the Caesars
CZR,
+5.05%
.

But why is the draft unique? It’s mainly because in most cases, sportsbooks have more information than bettors. They have enormous databases on every player of every team, team trends, and tendencies of coaches and referees, among other things. But the draft is not a live sports game, you’re betting on people making decisions in a draft room.

“For instance in the Super Bowl, we have so much data, there’s so much information, that we’re so confident that the Rams should be 4.5 point favorites over the Bengals,”Jay Croucher, Head of Trading at the PointsBet sportsbook, said during a Wednesday interview with NBC. But he added, about the NFL Draft: “This kind of market, I really can’t tell you with much confidence who should go number one, or who will go number one.”

For once, sportsbooks and bettors are on a level playing field. Sportsbooks and bettors don’t have to forecast complex games with several dozen people involved, they simply need to learn the preferences of a General Manager, the person who makes a team’s draft pick. And one way to do that, is through information.

Here’s an example of how bettors can do well wagering on the NFL Draft. In the days leading up to last year’s draft, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that “most people” believe the Atlanta Falcons will select tight end Kyle Pitts at pick No. 4. Rapoport is one of the plugged-in analysts when it comes to NFL news, and has millions of followers on Twitter, so when he tweets information like that, the betting markets move.

Nine days before the draft, the odds that the Falcons would select a tight end was +160, but on the morning of the draft it was -250, representing a massive implied probability change from 38.% to 71.4% in a matter of days, according to odds from William Hill. If you were able to make that bet fast enough, you were able to cash in when the Falcons indeed chose Kyle Pitts a little over a week later. You can find a further explanation of how betting odds work here.

You didn’t need a giant database or tracking data to be able to bet on Kyle Pitts to be selected there, you just needed to be following Rapoport on Twitter.

Coucher conceded that sportsbooks basically rely on the same information as public bettors, indicating the draft is one big probabilistic guess.

“Alleged text messages from someone who might be a cousin of someone who might work at the Jags (the team selecting at No. 1 in 2022), this is the stuff that drives the market…its mock drafts, its sources, its things that get posted on Twitter,”
TWTR,
+0.97%

Coucher went on to say.

Last year was the third time that Americans could legally wager on the NFL Draft — the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, allowing individual states to legislate sports betting — and bookmakers readily admit that they don’t always make money accepting bets on the NFL Draft.

“From a bookmaker’s perspective, handicapping the NFL Draft is one of the most difficult things that we do,” Johnny Avello, the Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, wrote to MarketWatch in an email. “In this particular instance, I would move the needle towards the bettor. It’s been tough for us to make money in the draft.”

See also: What time does the NFL Draft start? Here’s what you need to know about how to watch the 2022 NFL Draft

As mentioned above, quick reactions to breaking news from people who frequently talk with people who help run NFL teams can spread fast, but bettors who can take advantage of that information can get a leg up on the sportsbooks.

In sports competitions, chance and perhaps more accurately randomness can have a huge impact. Whether it’s a bad shooting night for the best shooter in an NBA game, or a weird bounce of a the prolate-spheroid-shaped football during a large scrum, randomness is everywhere. While some aspects of randomness exist in the NFL Draft, wagering on the latest news you saw on Twitter before the sportsbooks have time to change their betting lines can be your best opportunity to win, Croucher said.

“This is the nature of the draft, these markets, they are pretty vulnerable, and you can beat them.”

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No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

No known threats targeting Super Bowl events in Los Angeles area this weekend, authorities say

LOS ANGELES (AP) — There are no known security threats to the Super Bowl, authorities said Tuesday as they outlined the coordinated law-enforcement effort to keep the game at SoFi Stadium and the Los Angeles region safe.

Fans attending the game can expect an enormous police presence at the stadium, which will have a tightly monitored security perimeter. Meanwhile patrol officers, tactical teams, K-9 units and paramedics will be been deployed across Los Angeles County in the run-up to the NFL championship game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said at least 500 members of his department are devoted to safety for the big game, including agents focused on ferreting out cyberthreats and preventing human trafficking.

“We have no information of a specific, credible threat against the Super Bowl,” said Mayorkas. “What this is all about is planning and preparation to prevent any incident from occurring.”

Mayorkas’s department, however, warned that a truck convoy on the order of those clogging central Ottawa, Ontario, and disrupting U.S.-Canadian commerce at a bridge near Detroit could emerge and create problems near the Super Bowl site.

Don’t miss: Homeland Security Department voices concern about Super Bowl and State of the Union disruptions by Canada-style truck convoy

Air Force fighter jets will enforce a temporary flight-restricted zone on Sunday in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies. NORAD earlier in the week scheduled a defense exercise for the airspace over the Inglewood area.

The city police department in Inglewood, where the stadium is located, is the lead local law-enforcement effort. It will coordinate with the Los Angeles Police Department and the sheriff’s department. About 400 deputies were dedicated to the Super Bowl, including extra patrols for the county’s transit system, said Jack Ewell, chief of the sheriff’s Special Operations Division.

Inglewood Police Chief Mark Fronterotta said his officers will focus on preventing fights between fans, after a San Francisco 49ers fan suffered a brain injury during an altercation outside SoFi during the NFC championship game last month. “The parking lots will be extensively covered,” Fronterotta said.

Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore said there has been no disorderly behavior at pre–Super Bowl activities at the downtown L.A. Convention Center. The LAPD has canceled some scheduled time off to ensure the department has enough staff for all the week’s events, including a possible victory parade for the Rams, Moore said.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell addresses the media on Wednesday on the SoFi Stadium campus in Inglewood, Calif.


Rob Carr/Getty Images

Only small, clear bags will be allowed inside the stadium on game day, though fans are encouraged to bring as little as possible with them.

“If you want to breeze through security, less is more. The less you bring, the faster you go through security,” said Cathy Lanier, the NFL’s chief security officer.

Security measures extend to the skies, too. The North American Aerospace Defense Command, known as NORAD, planned a defense exercise on Tuesday for the airspace over greater Inglewood. On Sunday, U.S. Air Force fighter jets will enforce the temporary flight-restricted zone in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration, the FBI and other agencies.

The FAA warned that drone operators who fly unmanned aircraft into the restricted area could face large fines and potential criminal prosecution.

MarketWatch contributed.